2023 in Review
Here are some reflections on my past year of twice-weekly research, analysis and modeling, to celebrate this season of change.
Just one year ago, Prairie Routes Research was conceived to answer common questions about new marketing opportunities in regenerative agriculture and food. Leveraging a career in commodity grain marketing and previous success in modeling commercial farm profit-maximization, my objective was to own, organize, and commercialize the knowledge I had amassed in almost ten years of working to develop new markets for regenerative farmers.
In the process of publishing past research, early in 2023 I learned a couple of new things. First, the personal and professional rewards from implementing a regular research discipline, for any curious person, are countless. Second, the list of topics that need to be incorporated into farmland decision-making continues to grow, at an accelerating rate.
Research Highlights
One of my first forays back into analytical forecasting last January was on the markets for forage seed. With Canada’s On-Farm Climate Action Fund (OFCAF) reimbursing setting up managed grazing systems on cropland, demand for the seeds to do so will clearly be rising. To my delight, a few weeks later at lunch, a seed industry executive whose career revolved around GMO canola mused about diversifying the business into forage seed.
For the most part, business leaders in industrial agriculture today just need a hint at what’s possible in order to start strategizing ways to approach the economic opportunities within regenerative agriculture. Regulated bodies like governments and farm associations, on the other hand, remain firmly cemented in misdirected paradigms and outdated belief systems.
In March, an old friend and longtime provincial government employee reached out to me looking for project ideas that would help fulfill ‘the Guelph Statement.’ After reading up about this new federal policy driver, I was prompted to translate my own experiences being gaslit by champions of the status quo, into a truth-finding exercise about how the worst polluters in agriculture are manipulating their investors and the public using sponsored content.
Yet we were reminded – repeatedly in 2023 – that spectacular business write-downs and the collapse of bad actors are possible too. The most fun I had writing Prairie Routes Research in 2023 was using the Blackberry/Apple story to demonstrate the consequence of ignoring market threats.
Apart from being fun and fulfilling, each individual topic answers a question related to a pillar of the new economic model for post-industrial agriculture. Upon publishing how I see the revenues stacking up against the old math, another writer offered to produce an article for a mainstream farm publication about my ‘proposed new vision.’
I flatly refused, feeling a bit insulted, because I know it’s not my place to propose change.
Prairie Routes Research applies math-based behavioral theory to markets and farming systems everywhere facing elevated weather risks.
The support tools are shape-shifting across the farm’s ecosystem. Insurance, lending, farmland investing, and even the common science of crop production… are all being reformed to accommodate emerging economic incentives within an expanding range of options for earning profits off of land.
Destruction Lies Ahead for Ag Forecasting Models
When farmers change into regenerative agriculture, they plant different crops. Pure gross margin potential ceases to drive management decisions. Along with margin potential, regenerating farms count quality of life, subsidies, concern for the environment, new market payments, and hope for future generations in measuring success.
From the perspective of grain market analysis that relies heavily on supply and demand data for forecasting, this shift in farmland management priorities is a big deal. We are already seeing examples of markets behaving counter-intuitively than mainstream analysis indicates.