Cropping for the Win in 2025 & Beyond
The bleak outlook for commodity grain markets represents a fantastic opportunity to tap into new payments, improve soil health, and long-term farm financial resiliency.
The U.S. tariff threat is gut-wrenching for Canadian grain farmers, and has already taken a chunk out of cash prices and liquidity in local markets. That’s the prevailing viewpoint, anyway.
Leveraging layered government programs and corporate payments for sustainability data, some farmers nowadays are shifting focus towards new markets and diversifying revenues. If you’re a farmer interested in building a forward-looking multi-year management plan that improves profitability, please contact us for more information!
The hard work facing industrial agriculture right now is quantifying the economic outlook for different farm types. Depending on its cost structure, planning horizon and borrowing requirements, long-term farm financial viability varies significantly.
In addition to multiple layers of government, organizations like Ducks Unlimited, ALUS, and many smaller non-profits have funding to reimburse farmers for taking steps to implement regenerative agriculture practices. Usually the payments can be stacked, adding up to a significant improvement in profitability compared to growing high-input, emissions-intensive commodity crops.
New corporate program payments and market premiums are kicking off in 2025 as well, and they’re not all that hard to qualify for - yet. The industry understands how offensive sustainability can be in conventional agriculture circles, and have set the bar low in hopes of welcoming as many farms into their programs as possible.
Sample Strategy
A cover crop is planted for the purpose of holding the soil in place to prevent erosion, and with the right plants in the mix, can also correct salinity and herbicide-resistant weed problems. Our first step with most customers is to identify a ‘problem field,’ and bring in a cover cropping expert to design a species blend to solve it.
Cover crop seed blends that include legumes will give the soil an extra boost, allowing us to reduce crop input expense projections for both the 2025 and 2026 seasons.
Spring weather conditions need not put the plan for cover cropping in 2025 at risk. Custom applicators are available for drone seeding aerially, expenses for which are covered under the On Farm Climate Action Fund, along with the seed itself. We thread those program reimbursements into monthly cash flow projections, along with grain sales revenue based on market projections and applicable premiums.
In response to snowballing demand for rye and triticale seed in response to decades-long North American subsidy programs, we plan to terminate the cover crop at the ideal time for planting a fall cereal. Projections for cover crop seed market pricing in the years to come are based on supply and demand data, coupled with published program targets and timelines.
In guiding customers on how to efficiently track field activities along the way, we are constantly exploring new pricing tiers, particularly ones needed to comply with market access regulations, and to validate downstream corporate emissions-reduction targets.
Why Now?
This book, penned by one of Canada’s leading candidates to become the next Prime Minister, for sure contains some too-lengthy institutional explanations and high-level platitudes. But whatever you think of the party he represents currently doesn’t matter as much as the decades-long economic trends driving important shifts in the financial implications of different farming systems today.
Diversity, equity and inclusion might be dead in U.S. politics, but they still have value in crop rotations. Plant and soil biodiversity, feminine and indigenous wisdom, and being open to new ideas are all core tenets of successful farming in the future.
Marketing Special Crops
Over the long run, keeping the farm healthy and soils productive will involve producing more non-traditional and non-GMO crops, whose markets can be tougher to navigate. But it’s worth figuring it out because plant species like buckwheat, triticale, mustard, flaxseed and legumes all play a role in scavenging nutrients that are already in the soil, to save on future crop input requirements without sacrificing yield or margin.
The data on supply and demand for these crops is scant or untrustworthy, coming from under-funded government sources. Some of the buyers and merchants of these crops can be also be risky to work with because they tend to be small, to trade into challenging destination markets, and in products with elevated market volatility.
Farmers needing help marketing specialty crops will benefit over time by the market forecasting and navigation support that is also provided by Prairie Routes, as part of the Business Plans for Fields program. To learn more about marketing special crops and to see if our services are a fit for you, email hello@prairieroutes.ca to set up a time for a call.
Summary
As these markets shift the payment and expense structures for typical medium-sized grain farms, thousands now suddenly need help to adapt, which is reflected in the incredible momentum of new farmers showing up at soil health gatherings. Prairie Routes has a network of skilled farmers that were early adopters of regenerative agriculture land management practices, who participate in developing new long-term cropping strategies for clients, by sharing their in-field experiences and learnings over time.
It’s not as straightforward as some sales reps might try to suggest. Substituting bio-stimulants for synthetic crop inputs will fail unless the field’s unique soil biology and nutrient profile is properly analyzed and well-understood.
Further, nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) doesn’t go far enough to satisfy new market players, and there’s nothing in it for end use consumers. Put plainly, there’s no cookie-cutter solution out there that will work for every farm to adapt to modern market demands, and the only workable strategies start with a fulsome analysis of each unique individual’s current context.